Assessing Thomas Young's Mortality Formula in the Context of Model Life Tables

Peter O. Pflaumer, TU Dortmund

This paper examines Thomas Young's pioneering 19th-century mortality formula, presented in his 1826 article "A Formula for expressing the Decrement of Human Life" in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Young's high-order polynomial formula aimed to model the decrement of human life across various age groups, offering a sophisticated early attempt at creating a model life table. Through modern demographic methodologies, this study scrutinizes and critiques Young's life table, highlighting its analytical representation of mortality patterns and its historical significance. The analysis reveals that Young's formula, despite minor errors, accurately reflects mortality trends, particularly when compared to the Coale and Demeny model life table (MODEL WEST, LEVEL 5, FEMALES). Young's method of fitting mortality data through a polynomial function illustrates an early and effective approach to demographic modeling, capturing age-specific mortality rates and overall life expectancy. His life table underscores the interconnectedness of historical demographic modeling and offers insights into mortality patterns in early 19th-century England. Young´s work provides valuable insights into early 19th-century mortality patterns, contributing to the theoretical and practical understanding of demographic modeling. Despite its limitations, Young's life table remains a foundational tool for historians and demographers exploring historical mortality data.

Keywords: Historical Demography, Mortality and Longevity, Data visualisation , Mathematical demography

See paper.