A Resurgence of Familism? Income Volatility and Fertility Intention in China: 2010-2018

Xiaojie Shen, Peking University

Economic volatility has increasingly become a key factor negatively influencing fertility intentions and behaviors, particularly in developed countries. However, less is known about its impact in non-Western social contexts and developing countries. Using data from the China Family Panel Study (CFPS), this study examines the relationship between income volatility and fertility intentions during a period of rising income insecurity. Contrary to findings in Western contexts, I find that income volatility is positively associated with fertility intentions, and this relationship holds across various measures of income volatility. Additionally, this effect is more pronounced among male respondents, rural hukou holders, and younger cohorts. My findings suggest that growing economic insecurity may lead to a resurgence of familism, particularly in rapidly transitioning societies in East Asia.

Keywords: Fertility, Families, Unions and Households, Economic Demography, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination

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