An analysis of the proximate determinants of fertility between Senegal and Kenya

Keita Ohashi, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

This comparative study reviews population policy implementation between Senegal and Kenya. Senegal was the first Francophone country in sub-Saharan Africa to adopt its national population policy in 1988, whereas Kenya was the first Anglophone country to do so in 1967. Senegal started its fertility decline in late 1990s, while Kenya had already started it in mid 1980s. Kenya experienced some stall in fertility decline between 1998 and 2003 but resumed its fertility decline since then. This study examined their population policy implementation patterns with an emphasis on Francophone and Anglophone cultural comparison. Colonial influence on proximate determinants of fertility was analyzed with the use of Demographic and Health Survey data for the period between 2000 and 2023. A revised Bongaarts model on proximate determinants of fertility showed age-specific differences between the two countries. Strong contraceptive use orientation by Kenya was further reinforced in recent decades while that of Senegal remained modest by keeping its recourse to birth spacing. Marriage patterns showed similar progress with later marriage and declining marriage rates due to increased female education and employment. Abortion increased its fertility inhibiting effects in Kenya but its effect remained weak in Senegal in the last two decades.

Keywords: Population Policies, Fertility, Family Planning and Contraception, Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights

See paper.