Total Fertility Rates with Immediate and Very Long Run Zero Population Growth Implications for European Countries

Nick Parr, Macquarie University

This paper proposes a new version of the long-run population replacement Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for population with non-zero migration. The method adjusts the ‘typically just below 2.1’ replacement level (applicable to populations which are closed to migration) for effects of constant immigration counts and emigration rates. A major advantage of this version of ‘Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR’ compared to Parr’s (2021) version is its applicability to contexts with negative current net migration. The results for 22 European show the Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR for 2019 ranges between 0.86 for Spain and 2.44 for Croatia. Its value is below 2.1 in 18 countries. In nine of the countries the TFR is above Migration-Adjusted Replacement level. The long-run perspective on zero growth the ‘Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR’ provides is supplemented with near-term perspective by also presenting the TFR that would produce immediate zero population growth. The ‘Immediate Zero Growth TFRs” for 2019 range from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria, and are mostly below the long-run Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR. The paper argues the paired Immediate Zero Growth TFR and (long run) Migration-Adjusted Replacement TFR offer better guidance on birth rates that can prevent depopulation than the familiar ‘typically just below 2.1’ replacement TFR.

Keywords: Mathematical demography , Fertility, Data and Methods, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

See paper.