RAINFALL SHOCKS ACROSS CHILDHOOD and ADOLESCENCE and HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT

Sundar Ponnusamy, Monash University

Using individual-level data on children from Pakistan, this paper examines the effects of rainfall shocks from their in-utero stage to the age of 16 on human capital development. The findings indicate that positive concurrent rainfall shocks lower cognitive performance among older children (ages 11-16) as they substitute labor for education. However, no discernible effects are observed for the younger cohort (ages 5-10). Positive rainfall shocks experienced during school transition and early teenage years (ages 11-16) reduce the overall educational attainment of young adults (ages 16-30) and increase the likelihood of getting married between 18 and 24. Conversely, children born during positive rainfall years exhibit higher levels of physical and cognitive development and a lower likelihood of involvement in child marriage or employment. These long-term effects are more pronounced for girls.

Keywords: Children, Adolescents, and Youth, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Gender Dynamics, Population, Environment, and Climate Change

See extended abstract.