How Does Legal Status Shape Differences in Migration Intentions? The Case of Immigrants in Mainland France.

Inès Munoz-Bertrand, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

Administrative status is a characteristic often missing from the quantitative literature on migratory intentions. Yet legal status, and in particular the fact of having been undocumented or an asylum seeker, has lasting effects on the life course of individuals. The aim of this presentation is to explore the effect of characteristics linked to legal status on the migration intentions of first-generation immigrants in mainland France, using data from the Trajectoires et Origines 2 survey (Ined-Insee, 2019-2020). Various variables linked to residence permits will be explored, including the fact of having applied for asylum, of having experienced one or more “undocumented” periods, and of being a European citizen. The method involves multivariate analysis using multinomial logistic regression models. In particular, we show that having experienced a period of irregularity in the past significantly reduces the probability of considering returning to one's country of origin, even when controlling for income and asylum application. Asylum seekers are also less likely to declare their intention to emigrate, whatever the destination. Finally, European citizenship does not appear to have a significant effect on migration intentions. These results point to avenues of research to understand the effect of restrictive and discriminatory policies towards immigrants on return.

Keywords: Migrant Populations and Refugees, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination, International Migration, Population Policies

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