Decomposition and Projection of Regional Estimate of Life Expectancy in Nigeria for 2023

Abdulafeez Adebayo, University of Ibadan
Ayo Adebowale, University of Ibadan
Babatunde M. Gbadebo, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
Olaposi Adeyemi, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan. Ibadan, Nigeria
Esther Aikuola, Student

This study examines mortality rates' impact on regional life expectancy differences across Nigeria for 2023. Using data from the (NDHS) from 2003 to 2018 and the 2006 population census, life expectancy was projected for 2013 and 2023. Life tables based on the Coale-Demeny and West Model were used for these projections. Further analyses employed the Brass logit model, linear regression, exponential growth, Kitagawa and Arriaga models. Results indicate higher life expectancy for females compared to males across all regions. In 2023, life expectancy for males was highest in the South-West (65.6 years) and lowest in the North-West (47 years), while for females, it was highest in the South-West (69.2 years) and lowest in the North-East (52.3 years). The age group 0-4 years significantly influenced changes in mortality, with the South-East showing the most notable contributions. Between 2013 and 2023, males and females showed significant mortality reduction in early childhood, particularly in the South-East and North-Central regions. Nigeria's mortality rates vary by region, with North West and South West having the highest rates for under-5 and adults, respectively, and South East and South-South having lower rates. The findings suggest targeted health interventions for children aged 0-4 to further improve life expectancy in Nigeria.

Keywords: Decomposition analysis, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Mortality and Longevity

See extended abstract.