Gazing at Long-term Linkages Between Agricultural Land Use and Population Growth in India: An Inverted ‘U-Shape’ Relationship

Arjun Jana, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India considering the Malthusian-Boserupian debate. I have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts * 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. I theorize that there is an inverted ‘U-shape’ relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. The findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961-2021. I have found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Before the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Economic Demography, Spatial Demography, Econometrics

See paper.