Regional and Ethnic Differentials in Understanding the Changes in Fertility Rate: Analysis of the Nigeria Demographic Health Survey

Yusuf Kareem, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
Andat Dasogot, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
Koessan Kuawu, United Nations Population Fund
Gifty Addico, United Nations Population Fund

Fertility rate, the average number of children born to women during their reproductive years is an important demographic indicator. This study aimed to analyze regional and ethnic differentials in fertility rates using data from three rounds of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2008, 2013, and 2018. The study employed a multi-stage cluster sampling, stratified by urban and rural areas, to select respondents. The total fertility rate (TFR) was computed using the "tfr2" command in Stata, and Poisson modeling was used for data analysis at p<0.05. The National TFR declined from 5.7 to 5.3 between 2008 and 2018, with regional variations. The North West had the highest TFR of 6.6 while the South West experienced the lowest TFR of 3.9 in 2018. The adolescent birth rate (ABR) declined from 121 births to 106 births per 1000 between 2008 to 2018 with the highest ABR in the Northwestern region. The findings indicate regional and ethnic disparities in fertility rates in Nigeria. Factors such as education, wealth, place of residence, religion, and access to family planning messages were associated with TFR. These results provide valuable insights for targeted interventions to address fertility differentials across regions and ethnic groups in Nigeria.

Keywords: Fertility, Family Planning and Contraception, Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights, Population and Development

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