Exploring Socio-Ecological Effects and Spatial Heterogeneity in Total Fertility Rate in Bangladesh

Khandaker Jafor Ahmed, University of Michigan

Bangladesh's fertility rate has declined over decades, showing notable variations across its 64 districts. However, spatial variations in the total fertility rate (TFR) remain underexplored. This study used publicly available data to examine district-level TFR variations and their socio-ecological determinants, employing global and local Moran’s I statistics to analyze spatial clustering and dependence. Spatial lag/error models assessed the impact of various factors on district-level TFRs. Results revealed spatial clustering, with high-high clusters in northeast and southeast districts and low-low clusters in the west and southwest. Key factors affecting TFR included the percentage of the poorest population, housing conditions, modern contraceptive use, skilled birth attendance (SBA), under-five mortality rates, frequency of storms, extreme temperature events, and the number of people affected by these events. The study highlights complex spatial spillover effects, underscoring the need for targeted regional interventions, localized family planning efforts, regional female education impacts, poverty interconnectedness, local healthcare efficacy, the indirect role of storms, and shared environmental vulnerabilities. These insights are crucial for developing effective fertility management strategies in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Spatial Demography, Fertility, Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data

See paper.