The Two-Child Ideal Family Size: How Mexico-Us Migration Influences Fertility at Home

Ana Canedo, Département de Démographie, Université de Montréal

This study examines the impact of migrating internationally to the United States on fertility preferences and behaviors among non-migrant spouses in Mexico, emphasizing the role of transferred social norms in shaping demographic outcomes. Using data from the 2014 and 2018 iterations of Mexico's National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID), we assess how returned migrants influence family dynamics of those who stayed behind. Our analysis employs Poisson regression models to compare the fertility preferences of Mexican women whose partners have migrated and returned from the United States against those whose partners did not migrate. We focus on California and Texas—states with notably different reproductive health policies and fertility rates—to investigate how specific state norms impact the transfer of cultural and reproductive norms. To mitigate selection bias in migration decisions, we apply an instrumental variable approach that utilizes historical migration patterns and state-level labor demands in the U.S. as instruments. Preliminary results indicate that spouses of migrants from states with progressive reproductive policies, like California, often adopt smaller family size preferences, which more closely align with U.S. norms. This finding enriches the growing body of research demonstrating that return migration can significantly influences the social norms and beliefs of those left behind.

Keywords: International Migration, Fertility, Migrant Populations and Refugees, Population and Development

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