Modification in Bongaarts Contraceptive Index and Estimation of Total Fertility Rate of Indian States

Abhay Tiwari, Banaras HIndu University
Vaishali Patel, Meerut College Meerut
Pappu K Singh, Banaras Hindu University

Bongaarts (1978) and later Bongaarts and Potter (1983) refined the list of intermediate variables which was given by Davis and Blake ‘s (1956). They analysed data from 41 developed and developing countries and identified eight =Proximate Determinants of Fertility‘. Bongaarts (1983) later demonstrated that 96% of the variation in total fertility rates (TFR) could be explained by four specific factors: marriage, contraception, induced abortion, and lactational infecundability. He developed a methodology using these proximate determinants to estimate TFR through four indices. Firstly, we have estimated the total fertility rate through Bongaart‘s method for India and its major states for the period 2019-2 and considerable discrepancies were found between the actual and estimated TFR values. These differences indicate that Bongaarts Model does not provide accurate estimates of TFR for India under present conditions. In this paper, we have modified Bongaarts' contraceptive index by incorporating a weighted average of the proportion of female sterilization at different birth orders (WFS). This modified contraceptive index was used as a predictor to estimate TFR. The study concludes that the modified contraceptive index provides more accurate estimates of TFR.

Keywords: Fertility

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