First Birth Interval – a Significant Determinant of Fertility Decline in Vietnam

Tran Thi Tuyet Nga, Chulalongkorn University
Orawan Prasitsiriphon, Chulalongkorn University

Keeping fertility stable at the replacement level is one of the priority targets of the Vietnamese government. However, according to recent data, the fertility trend seems to be decreasing. In this study, we aimed to examine fertility behavior determinants among female reproductive-age women in Vietnam. The multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS), with round 6 data collected from 2020 to 2021, were utilized. A sample of 8,277 weighted ever-married/union women aged 15-49 were analyzed. The dependent variable was fertility behavior, measured by the number of children ever born. The explanatory factors were classified following the socioecological model including individual, interpersonal, and community factors. Poisson regression was used to identify explanatory factors of the fertility behavior of ever-married women. We found that there were significant factors that were statistically related to the number of children ever born, including age at first marriage, first birth interval, socioeconomic status, decision-making on contraceptive use, and mass media exposure. The study results showed that the current population strategies of Vietnam regarding encouraging early childbearing after marriage in Vietnam are appropriate to help maintain a stable fertility rate at approximately replacement level. However, the recommended age for marriage and having the first child should be considered.

Keywords: Fertility, Population Ageing, Family Planning and Contraception, Population Policies

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