New Zealand's Changing Population Landscape and Implications for Health System Demand

Love Umesi, Health New Zealand
Shefali Pawarr, Health New Zealand

From the 2023 Census results, New Zealand is more ethnically diverse and ageing slightly, but growth of the population slowed considerably, with about 6.3 percent, between censuses. These changes are driven by population ageing, unpredictable migration, and declining fertility rates. New Zealand’s fertility rate of 1.52 live births per female is now below replacement level. Another ongoing change is the regional divergence in the distribution of the New Zealand population, with recent growth, and that projected to occur, disproportionately in the upper part of the North Island (Auckland region at about 44%). These changes in the demographic landscape of New Zealand come with associated increase in demand for health services. By health districts, projected increase in demand for health services, for all ages, in the next decade will increase by between 7% and 25%. The largest growth in health services demand is projected in the Upper North Island and the Auckland Metro area. In the light of these changes of both population growth and demographic landscape, a key consideration for policy should be understanding the implication of these variations on health service delivery and adjusting our approaches to accommodate what is a major transformation in who we are.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Spatial Demography, International Migration, Fertility

See paper.