The Role of International and Intra-Regional Migration for Disparate Population Futures in the Countries of the European Union

Philipp Ueffing, European Commission - Joint Research Centre

The EU’s population is peaking after decades of below-replacement fertility across its member countries. However, the population size of some member countries is projected to continue to increase due to migration. The emergence of migration as a significant driver of population change in high-income, post-demographic transition countries has generally prompted new or modified perspectives on population dynamics, arguing for a need to move on from a view of population change as slow-moving, inertial and self-contained. This study analyzes the impact of both international and intra-regional migration on population change in the EU and its countries. Using a three-step methodology, we first estimate emigration and immigration by age, sex, and migration type for each EU country. Second, we decompose population change into contributions from fertility, mortality, migration, and population momentum. Finally, we apply a recently developed measure to assess the relationship between replacement fertility and migration and extend it by distinguishing between two types of migration. Our findings show considerable disparities in population dynamics across EU countries and the important role that migration within the region play in shaping their demographic future.

Keywords: International Migration, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Decomposition analysis, Spatial Demography

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