Fertility Intentions and Adoption of New Family Norms: A Quasi-Natural Experiment for Ukrainian Migrants in Poland

Agnieszka Fihel, University of Warsaw / University Paris Nanterre
Weronika Kloc-Nowak, University of Warsaw
Agata A. Górny, University of Warsaw

Poland has been home to two large, albeit very different, groups of Ukrainian migrants: those who arrived as a result of the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022 (war migrants), and those who came above all for work in previous years (pre-war migrants). In these circumstances, the effects of long-term exposure of pre-war migrants to Polish society can be separated from the influence of the home-country background common to both pre-war and war migrants and controlled for individual-level characteristics responsible for a potential selection into migration. This study evaluates the effect of migrants’ exposure to the host society on adopting new family-related social norms, modifying fertility intentions according to these norms, and proceeding to realise their intentions. Based on data from a survey of over 2,000 Ukrainians conducted in Poland in 2024, we apply methods of demographic analysis and estimate ordered logistic regression. Preliminary results show that pre-war migrants are more likely to intend to have a child in the near future, despite having lower fertility than war migrants. Young cohorts of pre-war migrants postpone their fertility, in line with the pattern prevailing in Poland, and are more attached to modern social norms of parenthood and family than war migrants.

Keywords: Family Planning and Contraception, Comparative methods , Fertility, International Migration

See extended abstract.