The distribution of reproduction during a fertility transition: Declining spread of parenthood in Brazil

Ewa Batyra, Center for Demographic Studies (CED) and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Ben Wilson, Stockholm University

Fertility transition is the process of change from high to low levels of childbearing. Demographers have a rich understanding of fertility transitions that have been observed in many contexts. Yet, we lack evidence on whether long-run fertility declines are accompanied by changes in reproductive variability. This is an important gap because reproductive variability—the concentration and dispersion of childbearing—may help demographers to better explain fertility trends and predict population change. We address this gap with a case of Brazil, which is a well-researched example of a fertility transition, with microdata for cohorts born 1910-70. We use multiple measures of reproductive variability to study how they change over time during a fertility transition, how they relate to measures of fertility quantum, and how this evidence varies by education. Reproductive variability declines across the Brazilian fertility transition—for measures of concentration and dispersion—although this is less evident when using a dispersion measure that adjusts for levels of children ever born. We find heterogeneity by education, and evidence that several measures of variability are predictive of fertility decline, highlighting a promising avenue for future research. Our findings suggest that conclusions based on one measure of reproductive variability may need to be treated with caution.

Keywords: Fertility, Census data, Human Capital, Education, and Work

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