Estimation of Market Indicators for Contraceptive Services and Products in India: Potentials of Market Development for Private Sectors with Total Market Approach

Arupendra Mozumdar, FHM Engage
Subrato K. Mondal, Population Foundation of India, India
Shankar Narayanan, FHM-Engage
Amit Bhanot, FHM-Engage

We calculated key total market approach (TMA) indicators for the contraceptive market in India using multiple rounds of the National Family Health Survey—1992–93, 1998–99, 2005–06, 2015–16, and 2019–21, Census data, and secondary data of retail market of contraceptives. In the last 5 years, the market size of modern contraceptives in India grew for the private sector (21% growth in urban areas and 33% in rural areas). Although the demand satisfaction with modern contraception increased in India, the current market size of modern methods consistently lags to reach its potential market size. Currently, in India, the private sector only contributes 65% of the total potential market volume for condoms, 52% for pills, and only 31% for injectables. Products of private commercial brands for condoms constitute 49% of the current market volume and 23% for pills. The contraceptive market in India is in the ‘developing’ phase. More than 100 erstwhile districts showed improvement in the stages of market development in the last 5 years. This analysis with TMA will inform the market actors about key market development indicators with data available in the public domain, reducing their dependency on costly market data, and strategizing their future investments in market development.

Keywords: Family Planning and Contraception, Data and Methods, Data visualisation , Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

See paper.