Unique Low Fertility Patterns and Their Causes in the Demographic Transition of East Asia

Yaguang Wang, Beijing Normal University
Ying Wang, Beijing Normal University

The major economies of East Asia have undergone a profound shift from high fertility to well below-replacement levels, becoming global "fertility gaps." Exploring the trends, causes, and mechanisms of fertility changes in East Asia within its cultural context offers key insights into addressing **low fertility challenges across East Asia**. This paper analyzes unique fertility patterns in the region, including low non-marital birth rates, delayed marriage and childbirth, declining birth order, rising lifetime unmarried rates, and a preference for male children. These trends result from a combination of global factors and regional specifics. Direct causes include "compressed modernity," which has transformed social and family structures, the expansion of education, changing female economic roles, economic uncertainty, and high child-rearing costs. On a deeper level, Confucian values centered on familism, collectivism, and elitism shape gender roles, family dynamics, intergenerational relationships, and fertility preferences. These cultural and social norms influence educational ideals, increase the psychological cost of child-rearing, and limit the effectiveness of policy interventions. Recognizing these cultural constraints is crucial for developing fertility policies that align with traditional values and promote balanced population growth and long-term social stability in East Asia.

Keywords: Fertility, Population and Development, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Population Policies

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