Decomposing Cancer Burden: Impact of Ageing and Demographic Shifts in Future Projections up to 2050 in Korea

Hyunsoon Cho, National Cancer Center Korea
Hoejun Kwon, National Cancer Center Korea

A rapidly aging population in Korea, with over 40% expected to be aged 65 and older by 2050, presents significant public health challenges, particularly in the rising cancer burden. We assess the impact of aging on future cancer trends. Age- and sex-specific cancer incidence and mortality from the Korea Central Cancer Registry and Statistics Korea were analyzed. The predictive modeling with, the CanProj model forecasted cancer incidence and mortality through 2050. Decomposition analysis quantified the contributions of population size, aging, and risk factors. Future cancer burden was simulated and categorized into low, mixed, and higher levels. Cancer burden is projected to increase across all cancer types, with population aging as the primary contributor. By 2050, prostate cancer in males is expected to rise by 1,123%, and breast cancer in females by 529%, mainly due to aging and increased potential risk. Despite decreasing risk factors, liver, stomach, lung (male), and colorectal cancers are expected to increase. Mortality is expected to increase in lung, colorectal, prostate, and breast cancers. Population aging is a primary driver of the rising cancer burden, highlighting the urgent need to integrate demographic shifts and challenges in aging populations to develop targeted cancer control strategies.

Keywords: Health and Morbidity, Population Ageing, Decomposition analysis, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

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