Trajectories of Loneliness in Later Life – Evidence from a 10-Year English Panel Study

Giorgio Di Gessa, University College London
Valeria Bordone, University of Vienna
Bruno Arpino, Università Di Padova

The prevalence of loneliness is usually higher among older people. So far, however, few studies have examined longitudinal patterns of loneliness in later life. Using data from six waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2008/09 to 2018/19, N=4740), we used group-based trajectory modelling to identify distinctive trajectories of loneliness. We identified 5 groups of loneliness trajectories, with the majority of the sample classified as "stable low/medium" or "decreasing" loneliness. However, 8% of the sample was classified as “stable high” lonely throughout the observation period (i.e. reporting high loneliness at all interviews) and another 8% as having an "increasing" trajectory of loneliness. Multinomial regression models were then used to examine demographic, economic and social factors associated with these trajectories. Results suggest that social network characteristics (such as size, support, closeness, and frequency of contact) and health are the most important determinants of loneliness trajectories: respondents with poor and deteriorating health as well as those reporting low-quality relationships with both friends and family were significantly more likely to have stable high or increasing loneliness throughout the observation period. The findings highlight the need to investigate loneliness from a life course perspective and to consider health and social networks’ quantity and quality to identify older people most at risk of loneliness.

Keywords: Longitudinal studies , Health and Morbidity, Older Adults and Intergenerational Relations

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