Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan African Countries by Place of Residence: Where Do They Stand and What Has Contributed Most to the Transition?

David A. Sánchez Páez, Universidad de Valladolid
Bruno D. Schoumaker, UCLouvain

Fertility transition models predict that fertility declines first in urban areas and then in rural areas. However, several sub-Saharan African capitals have experienced fertility stalls, which may indicate that the transition will take time to reach other subnational areas. Using the DHS, we determine the phase of the fertility transition by place of residence in 33 sub-Saharan African countries and the change of the proximate determinants of fertility over the course of the transition. We find that most of the capitals are in an advanced phase of transition. Postpartum infecundability accounts for a higher than expected proportion of inhibited fertility in capitals in the final phase. Capitals that have made the most rapid progress in the transition are those with a sharp increase in contraceptive use. That postpartum infecundability still has a relevant effect in the final phase of transition may indicate that further fertility stalls or longer-lasting current stalls.

Keywords: Fertility

See paper.