Assessment of Quantum Fertility Effects of Pronatalist Family Policy in Russia (2007-2023) within the Frames of the Second Demographic Transition Concept

Sergei V. Zakharov, Institute of Demography, Higher School of Economics,

Increased concern of the Russian elite about the declining population led to the adoption in 2006 of a pronatalist policy based on monetarist approaches reinforced by conservative-traditionalist ideology. Our analysis is based on indicators from increment-decrement age and birth-order-specific period and cohort fertility tables which are computed on Russian official statistics and harmonized with data from Human Fertility Database (period 1979-2023, female birth cohorts 1944-1995). Extrapolations are used for cohorts born in 1980-1995 to arrive at expected ultimate fertility outcomes. We mostly focus on parity progressions and ultimate distributions by number of children born. Our evidence reveals that the transformation of the Russian fertility model continues to be in line with transformations common to developed countries, and to neighboring countries from the former Soviet space. Two decades of active Russian pronatalist policy by increasing financial incentives for childbearing and by imposing a conservative family ideology did not stop the modernization of the fertility pattern within the Second Demographic Transition context. According to our estimates, the marginal effect of the policies is 0.07-0.08 births per woman in terms of the total fertility for cohorts that were in active childbearing in 2006-2021 (i.e., before the start of the war against Ukraine).

Keywords: Fertility, Population Policies, Data and Methods

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