The Changing Relationship between Development and Fertility by Reproductive Age-Groups over the 20th Century: New Regional Evidence from France

Sandra Florian, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Florian Bonnet, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

Most of the evidence during the first demographic transition in developed countries has indicated a negative relationship between economic development and fertility. However, some studies at the sub-national level have produced mixed results, as a decline in TFR was sometimes observed in the absence of significant economic development. These findings have sparked a debate, which has now evolved as recent evidence indicates that a positive relationship may be emerging. In this study, we provide fresh evidence of the changing relationship between income per capita and TFR in France by region from 1922-2019. We also break down this relationship by age groups. Findings reveal counteracting trends in the relationship between income and TFR between younger and older age groups that are obscured when births are aggregated for all ages. We argue that these opposite trends help explain the alleged weaker-than-predicted relationship between economic developing and fertility decline suggested by prior studies.

Keywords: Fertility, Historical Demography, Population and Development, Spatial Demography

See extended abstract.