Small-Area Mortality in Italy between 2002 and 2018

Gustavo De Santis, University of Florence
Federico Benassi, University of Naples Federico II
Gianni Carboni, University of Sassari (Italy)
Mauro Maltagliati, University of Florence

We study mortality between 2002 and 2018 at municipality level in Italy, i.e. for some 8,000 local administrative areas for which detailed mortality information is missing. We computed standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), relating observed to expected deaths, the latter deriving from the application of national age-specific mortality rates to local population age structures. We verified that the indicator produced reliable results, analyzed its properties, and used it to describe and interpret the specificities of small-area mortality in Italy. The main results are that territorial heterogeneity in terms of SMR was low but slightly increasing in the period under examination (the coefficient of variation passed from 12.5% to 15%), with an increase of the between-region deviance (although the within-region component remained prevalent, at about 80% of the total). Municipality “fragility” (as measured by an ad-hoc Istat-prepared composite index) correlated closely with mortality, which was higher in large cities and in “old”, inner municipalities. Spatial regression models, where the territorial component is explicitly introduced (to keep spill-over ad omitted variable effects under control), prove necessary: SAR (Spatial Autoregressive Model) and SEM (Spatial Error Model).

Keywords: Spatial Demography, Mortality and Longevity

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