Trends in Sibling Mortality in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Sophia Chae, University Of Montreal
Heeju Sohn, Emory University
Emily Smith-Greenaway, University of Southern California

Despite significant reductions worldwide, child mortality rates remain high in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While previous research has examined child death within familial contexts, sibling mortality during childhood and its effects on child health and well-being have received limited attention. This study proposes to use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys to provide a comprehensive analysis of sibling mortality before age 25 in LMICs. We aim to examine cohort trends in the prevalence of sibling deaths, estimate the probability of experiencing sibling loss before age 25, and develop sociodemographic profiles of bereaved and deceased siblings. Preliminary findings suggest a significant decline in sibling mortality between earlier (1986-1995) and more recent (2015-2023) surveys, though the burden remains high in low-income countries, where approximately one-third of individuals aged 0 to 24 have been exposed to sibling mortality. Moreover, we observe a shift in the timing of deaths, with an increasing proportion occurring before the focal child’s birth. Although the cumulative probability of sibling loss has declined across cohorts (1970s to 2000s), children in the most recent cohort face a 15 to 25% chance of losing a sibling by age 20.

Keywords: Children, Adolescents, and Youth, Families, Unions and Households, Mortality and Longevity, Population and Development

See extended abstract.