Population Growth and Food Insecurity in Nigeria: Malthus Revisited.

Oluyemi Theophilus Adeosun, Lagos Business School, Pan Atlantic University
Ifunanyachukwu Igboanugo, University of Lagos
Ngozi M. Nwakeze, University of Lagos

This study investigates the relationship between population growth, food production, and food insecurity in Nigeria. It examines the validity of the Malthusian theory, which posits that population growth outpaces food production, leading to food insecurity. Nigeria faces a growing population and struggles with food insecurity. Despite government efforts, food production has not kept pace with population increase. Also, the paper examines possible interventions to mitigate food insecurity. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on data spanning 1981-2022. Data were sourced from the World Development Indicators and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins. Existing research supports a negative correlation between population growth and food production in Nigeria. The findings indicate that food insecurity is significantly influenced by population growth and imports, while trade openness has a more nuanced impact. The stability of the model, confirmed by diagnostic tests, reinforces the robustness of the results. Policymakers should focus on long-term agricultural development plans that address population growth and its implications on food security. The paper recommends that Government should put policies in place to enhance domestic food production, and promote trade openness with protective measure for local farmers to foster a more resilient food supply chain.

Keywords: Population and Development, Population, Shocks and Pandemics, Population Policies, Population, Environment, and Climate Change

See paper.