Estimating Subnational Total Fertility Rates in China

Donghui Wang, University of Macau

The county-level total fertility rate is an important indicator in studying the persistent low fertility and its spatial variations in China. Unfortunately, such data is not reported in the recent 2020 Chinese population census. We adopt a novel estimation framework proposed by Hauser and Schertmann (2020) and estimate 2020 county-level total fertility rates in China. This framework approximates TFR based on the observed population age structure, adjusted for women’s lifetime fertility schedules and child mortality rates. We obtain data on the population age structure from the population census and under-five child mortality rate estimates from the maternal and child health surveillance system. We validate our estimation methods using province-level data from previous census years. Validation results show that, across four different TFR estimates, adjusting women’s lifetime fertility schedule and child mortality rates improves the performances of the estimates. A preliminary analysis of the 2020 county-level estimates indicates there exist large within-province heterogeneity. Overall, our analysis demonstrates the robustness of the Hauser and Schertmann (2020) framework, especially when the under-enumeration of children is a concern.

Keywords: Small area estimation, Fertility

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