Changes of Proportion Never Married and Expectation of Single Life for Chinese Women: Based on Nuptiality Tables

Weiyi Tan, Institute for Population and development Studies, Xi'an Jiaotong University
Quanbao Jiang, Institute for Population and development Studies, Xi'an Jiaotong University

Using data from the 2017 China Fertility Survey and IPUMS2000, we construct nuptiality tables across cohorts to analyze the trends in timing of marriage entry. We then assess how changes in first marriage conditional probabilities (FMCP) have impacted the proportion of women never married (PNM) and the expectation of single life (ESL). Further, we decompose the differences in PNM and ESL in later cohorts into age-specific differences between population in early cohorts and differences within population over cohorts, focusing on variation between urban and rural areas and educational levels. Our findings indicate a rising trend in PNM at corresponding ages and an increased ESL at age 15 across cohorts. The rise in PNM and ESL is primarily attributed to changes in FMCP among younger ages (20-25 years). Additionally, differences in FMCP between urban and rural areas, as well as between educational levels within younger ages (18-26 years), largely explain the disparities in PNM and ESL in later cohorts. Contour Decomposition results suggest that differences in FMCP between urban and rural areas, and across educational levels in early cohorts, have significantly influenced the lifelong PNM and ESL at age 15 in later cohorts.

Keywords: Decomposition analysis, Mathematical demography , Families, Unions and Households

See paper.