Accelerating the Demographic Transition to Maximize the Demographic Dividend in the Least Developed Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Guangyu Zhang, United Nations, Population Division
Karoline Schmid, United Nations

Governments in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in sub-Saharan Africa have set ambitious development goals through harnessing the demographic dividend, most of which, however, still have persistently high fertility and rapid population growth. The current slow pace of fertility decline may not generate a demographic dividend large enough to produce rapid socioeconomic progress. It is desirable to accelerate the transition moving to the intermediate stage with fertility falling below 4 births per woman, during which both the governments and households with fewer children can significantly increase investments in human capital formation and job creation to accommodate the still-growing school- and working-age populations. Using the latest data from the United Nations, World Bank and the National Transfer Accounts project, this paper explores the relationship between fertility decline and age structure change in sub-Saharan African LDCs as a whole and five selected countries, namely Angola, Lesotho, Niger, Rwanda and the United Republic of Tanzania based on their current fertility levels. It also offers theoretical discussions on the demographic dividend across different stages of the demographic transition. To maximize the benefits from the demographic dividend, the paper recommends LDCs continuously increase investments in sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights, including family planning.

Keywords: Population and Development, Population Policies, Fertility

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