Accelerating the Demographic Transition to Maximize the Demographic Dividend in the Least Developed Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Guangyu Zhang, United Nations, Population Division
Karoline Schmid, United Nations

Governments in the least developed countries (LDCs) in sub-Saharan Africa have set ambitious development goals by harnessing the demographic dividend. However, many of these countries still experience persistently high fertility rates and rapid population growth. The current slow pace of fertility decline may not generate a demographic dividend large enough to produce rapid socioeconomic progress. It is desirable for these countries to reduce fertility rates to lower levels to accelerate the demographic transition. Consequently, both governments and households with fewer children can significantly increase investments in human capital formation and job creation to accommodate the still-growing school- and working-age populations. Using the latest data from the United Nations, World Bank, and National Transfer Accounts project, this paper explores the relationship between the pace of fertility decline and age structure change in sub-Saharan African LDCs as a whole and in six selected countries, namely Angola, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Niger, Rwanda, and the United Republic of Tanzania, based on their current stage of demographic transition and fertility levels. To maximize the demographic dividend, the paper recommends that LDCs continuously increase investments in sexual and reproductive health, including family planning, as well as in education and health, to speed up the demographic transition.

Keywords: Population and Development, Population Policies, Fertility

See paper.

  Presented in Session 110. Population Policies