The Effect of Smoking Duration and Intensity on Mortality

Manja Albrecht, University of Rostock
Roland Rau, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Smoking significantly increases the risk of death, even at low consumption levels. The study analyzed data from the National Health Interview Survey (1997-2014) to assess how the duration and intensity of smoking impact mortality. Smoking duration (years smoked) and intensity (cigarettes per day) both independently and in combination (pack-years) were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models, considering socioeconomic status and lifestyle factors like alcohol use, physical activity, and BMI. The analysis was done separately for men and women, considering smokers with and without pre-existing health conditions. Results showed that all smokers have a higher relative risk of death compared to non-smokers, with the highest risk seen in those aged 18-60 who smoked over 75 pack-years. Increased daily cigarette consumption further heightened mortality risk. While lifestyle factors could slightly mitigate these risks, they did not eliminate them. Smokers with pre-existing conditions faced a more pronounced risk, but even healthy smokers had a significantly higher mortality risk than non-smokers. Overall, the study underscores that tobacco use, regardless of duration or intensity, negatively impacts mortality, and these effects intensify with higher consumption and longer smoking durations.

Keywords: Data visualisation , Mortality and Longevity

See extended abstract.