The Spatial Heterogeneity of the Determinants of Divorce in Belgium (1968-2015)

Adrita Banerjee, French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS)
Yoann Doignon, French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS)
Oumar Mbath, French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS)
Amira Hamieh, French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS)

A number of theories explain the family changes in Europe in the mid-1960s. However, the spatial dimension of these family changes have not been explored much. This study examines the spatial dynamics of divorce rates in Belgium from 1968 to 2015, using unique municipal-level data to understand the local determinants of divorce. While divorce was rare in Belgium for much of the 19th and 20th centuries, the rate surged after 1975. The study employs Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to analyse the spatial heterogeneity of divorce rates over time and their association with factors like secularization, male unemployment, aging, education, urbanization, labour market sex ratio, and foreign population. Results indicate significant spatial variability in the relevance of these factors, with secularization and unemployment showing contrasting effects across regions and periods. The findings show that the Second Demographic Transition theory is particularly relevant in the French-speaking Wallonia region, while also highlighting the relevance of economic insecurity per the Pattern of Disadvantage theory. This research underscores the importance of considering spatial dimensions in demographic studies and demonstrates how regional factors influence family changes, offering a nuanced understanding of the complex drivers of divorce in Belgium over the past five decades.

Keywords: Spatial Demography, Neighbourhood/contextual effect analysis, Families, Unions and Households, Econometrics

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