Beyond Trapped or Mobile: Socio-Economic and Demographic Drivers of Post-Flood Immobility and Mobility in the U.S.

Kate Foster, Cornell University

Flooding is the most economically and socially costly disaster in the United States, and its increasing frequency is expected to complicate patterns of internal migration. While much of the research on climate mobility focuses on predicting where people will move, understanding who stays and who leaves is equally important. This study explores the socioeconomic and demographic factors that shape both mobility and immobility following flooding events in the U.S. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, FEMA disaster records, and U.S. Census data from 2010-2020, this study investigates the roles of race, homeownership, income, and access to federal recovery resources in shaping flood im/mobility. The analysis employs logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of mobility or immobility, highlighting how these factors vary across different population groups. Expected findings hypothesize that, contrary to popular belief, low-income residents are more likely to experience reactive mobility than their affluent counterparts, who have better access to recovery resources. Additionally, renters, who are disproportionately low-income, are more vulnerable to displacement than homeowners. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on environmental mobility by emphasizing the importance of sociodemographic factors in shaping im/mobility patterns, offering valuable insights for both research and policymaking.

Keywords: Internal Migration and Urbanization, Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Population Policies, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination

See extended abstract.