Migration Spillover: Spatial Panel Analysis on Small Areas in Europe

Xi Chen, Quinnipiac University

Migration is an inherently spatial phenomenon. The origin, destination, and distance or connections between the two places play critical roles in the migration process. This research revisits conventional push-pull theories and cumulative causation arguments to explore the spatial spillover patterns of migration and the factors that cause migration spillover, particularly within subregional and smaller geographical areas. This study identifies economic and demographic factors contributing to net migration by utilizing data from the European Union, and nighttime light data from satellites. The results of fixed-effect spatial models reveal a significant spillover effect of the migrant population itself and a strong spillover effect of job opportunities in neighboring areas as pulling factors for migrants. Contrary to the assumptions of the classic gravity model, the findings show a surprising negative relationship between local population density and migration flow. These results shed new light on the expanded version of the cumulative causation argument, suggesting an outward spatial spiral pattern instead of simply a concave, curvilinear migration pattern within communities over time.

Keywords: Spatial Demography, Small area estimation, Internal Migration and Urbanization, Remote sensing

See paper.