Assessing Experimental Annual Estimates of Queensland Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Life Expectancy

Edwin Lee, Queensland Treasury
Roslyn Gittins, Queensland Treasury

Closing the gap in life expectancy is a key target for Closing the Gap to improve outcomes for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in Australia. Implementation initiatives are across all levels of government, with increasing focus on regional/local-level decision-makers. The current approach to monitoring progress in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy relies on single-time-point official statistics which are published every five years at the national and state levels. This work explores the use of a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate Queensland Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy on an annual basis and how the estimates compare with official statistics where possible. The model uses registered deaths data between 2015 and 2020 and auxiliary information to supplement age groups with sparse deaths data. The longer-term aim of this work is to produce sub-state estimates that are of more direct relevance to local decision-makers.

Keywords: Bayesian methods , The Demography of Indigenous Populations

See extended abstract.