Spatial and Temporal Variation in Total Fertility Rate across States and Uts in India, 2005-21; Evidence Based on NFHS Data

RATUL ROYCHOWDHURY, Banaras HIndu University
Harpreet Singh, Banaras Hindu University

The Total Fertility rate (TFR) is an important indication of a country’s Demographic health; This study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of TFR in India from 2005 to 202, using National Family Health Survey datasets. Despite an overall declining trend in TFR from 2.68 in 2005-06 to 1.99 in 2019-21, certain states in north India exhibit higher rates. Notably, by 2015-16, 19 states had TFRs below replacement level (TFR 2.1) while others, mainly in central, eastern, and north-eastern regions, maintained higher rates. In 2005-06 TFR is higher for women with no literacy is 3.06 higher, for rural residents it is 7.0 more likely to be high, for education it is 7.6 and wealth it is 7.6 higher for those who received no education. In 2019-21, the gap between TFR of women with no education and women who received 12 year or more education again reduces to 1.04 children per women. In India as a whole, fertility differentials remain large, with the greatest variances in TFR by wealth index quintiles, a difference of 2.13 TFR between the top and lowest wealth quintile in 2005-2006, 1.63 TFR in 2015-2016, and a gap of 1.06 TFR in 2019-21.

Keywords: Fertility, Spatial Demography, Big data, Economic Demography

See paper.