Analysis of Intra-Annual Mortality Fluctuations by Causes of Death in Italy

Isabella Marinetti, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Dmitri A. Jdanov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research / National Research University Higher School of Economics

Mortality patterns are often influenced by seasonal variations, with deaths often peaking during winter months due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Understanding these seasonal trends is critical for assessing their impact on mortality and life expectancy. While most studies focus on annual data, our research aims to uncover cause-specific intra-annual mortality trends in Italy from 2004 to 2019. We used monthly death counts by cause of death (ICD-10) from the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT), categorised into seventeen major cause groups. We estimated monthly age-standardized death rates (ASDR) by sex and cause, and its excess deaths by comparing observed rates to a baseline from the year’s lowest mortality months. Excess mortality and its ratio to baseline deaths were used to assess the relative impact of short-term mortality shocks across causes. Most causes of death showed clear excess winter mortality, with the highest peaks observed for respiratory, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular diseases. Interestingly, while overall mortality declined in the observed period, the impact of intra-annual excess mortality remained stable over time. Analysing the cause-specific contributions to intra-annual excess mortality is an essential aspect of understanding longevity trends and targeted public health interventions.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Health and Morbidity, Spatial Demography, Data and Methods

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  Presented in Session 186. Novel Cause of Death Analysis