Staying Home, Staying Childless? Family Nest-Leaving, Partnership Histories and Childlessness: A Comparative Analysis of Belgium and Finland

Alice Rees, UCLouvain
Marika Jalovaara, University of Turku

Childlessness is a complex phenomenon influenced by several factors including socioeconomic status, health, cultural norms, and family dynamics. The timing and manner of leaving the parental home and partnership formation, stand out as critical life transitions closely linked to the likelihood of becoming a parent. However, these pathways to independence vary across individuals and countries, shaped by diverse socioeconomic contexts and cultural norms. This study investigates the association between family nest-leaving, partnership trajectories, and ultimate childlessness in two distinct European settings: Belgium and Finland. Using rich register data for individuals born in 1975, we follow their residential and partnership pathways from 1991 to 2020. Employing multichannel sequence analysis, we identify typical trajectories and examine how these relate to the likelihood of remaining childless at age 45 using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. We identified five distinct partnership and residential trajectories in Belgium, revealing an association between early partnership formation, stable marriage, and parenthood. Prolonged singlehood was associated with lower likelihood of becoming parent, while early nest-leaving and marriage were associated with higher likelihood. While similar patterns are expected in Finland, cultural norms of earlier independence might weaken the link between prolonged parental co-residence and childlessness.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Fertility

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