Temperature Related Mortality in Germany and England and Wales in the 21st Century

Carlotta Dietrich, University of Rostock
Roland Rau, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Bernhard Koeppen, Universitaet Koblenz-Landau

We estimate temperature-related mortality trends in England & Wales and Germany during the first two decades of the 21st century. Understanding these trends is crucial for public health policies, particularly in the presence of climate change. Daily death counts were obtained for the years 2000–2019 and combined with the corresponding daily temperature data. Temperature-related mortality was estimated in two steps: 1) We estimated an exposure-response relationship for each country by applying a penalised distributed lag non-linear model (Gasparrini et al., 2017). 2) Those estimates are used to calculate the attributable fractions and numbers of death related to heat and cold (Gasparrini & Leone, 2014). The results indicate a decrease in cold-related mortality for both regions, accounting for almost 8% of all deaths in England & Wales and about 3% in Germany. In contrast, heat-related mortality is substantially lower in both countries (one percent or even less) but increasing. Combining heat- and cold-related deaths shows a slight decline in England & Wales and a slow increase in Germany in temperature-related mortality. In the coming months, we will apply these models to smaller geographic regions and incorporate variables such as sex and age to gain a deeper understanding of temperature-related vulnerability.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Mortality and Longevity

See extended abstract.