Economic Uncertainty and the Formation and Realization of Fertility Intentions in Norway

Axel Kristensen, University of Oslo
Trude Lappegard, University of Oslo
Lars Dommermuth, Statistics Norway

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic uncertainty and the formation and realization of fertility intentions in Norway. Norway is a country where there has been a dramatic decrease in fertility levels for the last fourteen years, where the TFR has dropped from being among the highest (1.98 in 2009) to being below average in Europe (1.40 in 2023). Economic uncertainty has been suggested as one reason behind the fertility decline, but empirical evidence remains scarce. This calls for more research on the underlying mechanisms behind the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. In this study we focus on young people’s intentions to enter parenthood and to which degree they realize their intentions, depending on different aspects of economic uncertainty. We aim to disentangle which aspects of economic uncertainty matters more for young people’s fertility intentions and their subsequent entry into parenthood. We use longitudinal data from the Norwegian Generations and Gender survey (GGS-II), conducted in 2020 and 2024. Regarding economic uncertainty, we distinguish between objective and subjective measures, i.e., observable objective measures of people’s current employment and income situation and people’s expectations towards their individual and societal future economic situation.

Keywords: Fertility, Longitudinal studies

See extended abstract.