Assessing the Impact of Temperature Anomalies on Fertility: A Municipality-Level Analysis of Birth Rates in Mexico (1985- 2020)

Itza Olguin Zuniga, University of Bologna
Côme Cheritel, Paris School of Economics
Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna

Around the world, summer temperatures are breaking records, with extreme heatwaves becoming more frequent affecting the health and well-being of the population. These temperature anomalies, attributed to anthropogenic climate change, can potentially influence fertility, varying across regions and going in different directions. Limited research exists on the impact of temperature anomalies on Latin American fertility. To fill in the gap, this study assesses the correlation between temperature anomalies—specifically, temperature and precipitation increases—and birth rates at the municipal level, one of the smallest geographical divisions in Mexico. Employing a panel regression model with fixed effects for time and municipality, we explore whether deviations of average temperatures from their long-term trends within each municipality are linked to changes in birth rates. To mitigate spatial dependencies, Conley-HAC standard errors were used in the regression model. This study aims to uncover a potential association between heightened temperatures and diminished birth rates, possibly followed by a compensatory increase. This research contributes to comprehending the impacts of climate change on demographic dynamics, particularly fertility, in the short and medium term in regions with high vulnerability to the consequences of extreme weather.

Keywords: Fertility, Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Family Planning and Contraception, Spatial Demography

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