Covid Mortality and Its Effect on Small-Area Mortality Trends: A Longitudinal Analysis

Jeralynn Cossman, University of Texas at San Antonio
Adolph Delgado, University of Texas San Antonio

Counties, as smaller geographic units, often display distinct mortality trends divergent from national averages, influenced by local variations in healthcare access, demographic composition, and socioeconomic factors. We find a gap in research exploring how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected these county-level mortality disparities. This study will examine the mortality rates for heart disease, cancer, and stroke— the top three causes of death—at the county level during two distinct time frames: 2018-2022, which coincides with the pandemic, and 2013-2017, prior to the pandemic. By contrasting these periods, we aim to ascertain if and how COVID-19 disproportionately influenced mortality rates in smaller geographic regions. We hypothesize that (1) counties with higher COVID-19 mortality rates will exhibit a statistically significant increase in mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, and stroke compared to the pre-pandemic period and (2) the impact of COVID-19 on these mortality rates will be more pronounced in counties with higher poverty rates, lower education levels, and higher percentages of non-white populations. By identifying and exploring these disparities, we seek to offer crucial insights into how pandemics affect mortality trends across localized geographies differently.

Keywords: Small area estimation, Spatial Demography, Mortality and Longevity, Computational social science methods

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