Religion and Demography: Papal Influences on Fertility

Vivek Moorthy, Florida State University
Lakshmi Iyer, University of Notre Dame
Paloma Moyano, Emory University

How do social norms affect fertility? Examining the visits of Pope John Paul II to 13 Latin American countries, which reinforced Catholic Church teachings, we find positive long term effects on fertility. These are driven by first births and by those residing in a region that the Pope visited. Papal messaging matters: fertility increases more when the Pope mentions marriage or abortions and contraception, and decreases with condemnations of pre-marital sex. Marriages increase with all three messages. Further, the effects are strongest for those who are less likely to be following Church teachings, such as non-Catholic, wealthier, and educated households.

Keywords: Fertility, Economic Demography, Population and Development, Econometrics

See paper.

  Presented in Session P4. Migration, Urbanization, Refugees; Economics: Population & Development; Climate Change, and Spatial Demography