Religion and Demography: Papal Influences on Fertility

Vivek Moorthy, College of the Holy Cross
Lakshmi Iyer, University of Notre Dame
Paloma Moyano, Emory University

Do religious leaders affect fertility? Examining the visits and messaging of Pope John Paul II to 13 Latin American countries, we find a negligible immediate effect but a substantial, positive and significant long term effect of Papal visits on fertility. Papal messaging matters for these effects: fertility increases more when the Pope explicitly mentions marriage or admonishes abortions and contraception, and decreases with explicit condemnations of pre-marital sex. Further, fertility rises after the Papal visit for richer and more educated households, for first births and for those less likely to be following church teachings at the time of the visit.

Keywords: Fertility, Economic Demography, Population and Development, Econometrics

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