Estimating Fertility Trends by State, Education, and Residence in India, 1990-2020

Julie Kim, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
Guillaume Marois, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

India faces multi-faceted demographic challenges stemming from vast heterogeneity across regions, education levels, and urban-rural divides. We present a comprehensive analysis of fertility across 26 states and Union Territories, disaggregated by 6 education levels and 2 residence types in India between 1990 and 2020. We employed a model-based approach to estimate age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), total fertility rates (TFR), and birth counts for each stratum, using data from women aged 15 to 49 in 5 rounds of the National Family Health Survey. Our findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in both fertility levels and trends. From 1990 to 2006, fertility decline was faster among higher-educated women, followed by a stall, while the lowest-educated groups exhibited a faster reduction in fertility after 2006. The education gradient of fertility, where more educated women tended to have fewer children, varied between rural and urban areas. Additionally, we found a notable shift in births toward women with more than secondary education, particularly in rural areas. Our results highlight the need for investment in education and safe family planning over restrictive population control measures, which disproportionately affect women from populations requiring policy attention, thereby undermining their access to political representation and essential services.

Keywords: Fertility, Population and Development, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Small area estimation

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