Estimating and Projecting the Population Living with Dementia at the Local Area Scale in Australia

Jeromey Temple, The University of Melbourne
Irina Grossman, The University of Melbourne
Tom Wilson, Advanced Demographic Modelling
Marina Cavuoto, National Ageing Research Institute
Tim Adair, University of Melbourne
Ruth Williams , The University of Melbourne
Kaarin Anstey , University of New South Wales; Neuroscience Research Australia

The provision of dementia care requires an understanding of how the number of persons living with dementia may change at a local level. However, most estimates and projections of dementia prevalence in Australia have been at a national level. In this study, we present estimates and projections of Australians living with dementia at state, territory and regional (SA3) levels from 2021 to 2036. Projections are prepared under three dementia prevalence scenarios. In the Decreasing Prevalence scenario, dementia prevalence rates by age, sex, and SA3 area decrease exponentially by 1% per year. In the Constant Prevalence scenario, the dementia prevalence rates remain fixed, whilst in the Increasing Prevalence scenario they increase exponentially by 1% per year. Even in the best-case Decreasing Prevalence scenario, the number of persons living with dementia in Australia is projected to increase substantially due to large growth in the older population. This increase is spatially heterogeneous presenting further challenges for healthcare and aged care planning. Given that the aged care services sector is already experiencing strain, this research highlights the need for urgent local level planning and policy decisions to support the care of persons living with dementia.

Keywords: Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Population Ageing, Spatial Demography, Health and Morbidity

See extended abstract.