Trends and Socio-Economic Inequalities in Life Expectancy in Australia during the Pandemic: The Interaction of COVID-19, Other Respiratory Infections and Non-Communicable Diseases

Tim Adair, University of Melbourne
Sergey Timonin, Australian National University
Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Australian National University

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s life expectancy increased sharply in 2020 following introduction of lockdowns, fell moderately in 2021 and declined substantially in 2022 after relaxation of restrictions. Analyses of the impact of lockdowns on life expectancy trends have focused on the underlying cause of death, ignoring more immediate causes such as pneumonia that are significantly suppressed by lockdowns. We use death registration data and decomposition methods to measure the contribution to pandemic life expectancy trends in Australia from COVID-19 and other respiratory infections (pneumonia, influenza) reported anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with non-communicable diseases (e.g. cardiovascular diseases, dementia). Trends are analysed by place of residence and small area socio-economic index. Over half the improvement in life expectancy in 2020 was from falls in mortality from other respiratory infections, most commonly occurring with cardiovascular diseases and cancers. COVID-19 contributed to 90% of male and 76% of female life expectancy declines in 2022, mostly as the underlying cause and in one-third of cases with other respiratory infections. Moderate variation in trends occurred between capital cities and rural areas and by area socio-economic quintile. The findings enhance understanding of lockdowns’ impact on life expectancy during the pandemic in Australia.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Population, Shocks and Pandemics, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination

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