Did Migrants Rally ‘Round the Flag? The Heterogeneous Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Social Trust between Migrant and Native-Born Populations

James O'Donnell, Australian National University
Qing Guan, Australian National University

Despite damaging health and economic effects, theory and evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic may have had galvanising effects on society, strengthening people’s emotional and social bonds and trust. Positive effects though are likely to be unequal and time limited, particularly for immigrant populations in view of the unequal outcomes they experienced during the pandemic and the social and economic tumult since. In this study, we use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the social impacts of COVID-19 on migrant populations in Australia. Treating the COVID-19 period as an exogenous shock and drawing on a longitudinal survey that interviewed respondents over a six-year period before, during and after the pandemic, we measure the extent to which trust in people (generalised trust) and trust in government changed during the COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 periods for native-born and migrant populations. We find that trust spiked during the pandemic for native-born populations with changes significantly weaker for recently arrived immigrant arrivals. No single factor or set of factors explains the lack of a galvanising response among migrant populations though inequalities are likely contributors. The results are important for how we understand the pressures and strains on intercultural harmony and social cohesion in the post-pandemic world.

Keywords: Population, Shocks and Pandemics, Migrant Populations and Refugees, International Migration, Longitudinal studies

See extended abstract.