Byproduct of Hyper-Low Fertility in Korea: Aristocracy or Meritocracy?

Doyoon Kim, Seoul National University
Youngtae Cho, Seoul National University
Woorim Ko, Seoul National University
Hye-eun Oh, Seoul National University

South Korea’s birth rate has plummeted to the lowest in the world, yet the socioeconomic and cohort backgrounds of parents and their broader societal impact have received little attention. Preliminary analysis reveals that parents who continue to have children predominantly belong to the social elite with higher socioeconomic status, contributing to what is known as the “prepared parent” phenomenon. This shift is expected to exacerbate existing polarization within Korean society, as these children, set to enter school from 2024, are likely to further widen socioeconomic disparities. Although previous research has explored the relationship between income levels and birth rates, the societal implications in terms of timing, scale, and long-term consequences remain underexplored. Understanding these dynamics requires looking beyond just the numbers. Therefore, starting from birth statistics analysis and forecasting, this study will incorporate focus group interviews to qualitatively assess how “prepared parents” influence educational and societal structures. By combining both quantitative and qualitative approaches, this research offers a comprehensive analysis, providing insights into the growing polarization and fostering discourse on how policies can better address the challenges posed by this demographic shift.

Keywords: Fertility, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination, Mixed methods research, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

See extended abstract.