Trend and Pattern of Climate Change and Climatic Exposure Index in Districts of India

suman singh, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Climate change presents a complex and escalating challenge, with varying impacts on agricultural productivity, food security, and livelihoods. While significant attention has been given to the risks posed by sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and increased cyclone frequency, there is a notable gap in understanding how other climatic variables, such as average annual rainfall, temperature, severe heat waves and extremely heavy rainfall, are changing at the district level in India. The study utilizes data from the Centre for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 2002-2021. Anomaly index to examine the average annual and seasonal departure of rainfall and temperature in India. The Man-Kendall test was used to examine the significant changes in climate at district level. Using the IMD criteria, we also estimated the frequency of extreme rainfall and heatwave events. At last, we measure the Climate Exposure Index using the IPCC vulnerability framework. We found significant changes in average annual rainfall and temperature in 75 and 203 districts respectively. The frequency of extreme rainfall events increased, but heatwave frequency remained steady. The Climate Exposure Index (CEI) revealed high exposure in northern and central India, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, while coastal areas and parts of the Northeast showed very low exposure.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

See extended abstract.