Multidimensional Trajectories of Family Adversity in Childhood and Outcomes in Adolescence and Early Adulthood: Population-Based Evidence from Rural South Africa

Brian Houle, Australian National University
Shao-Tzu Yu, Princeton University
Michael Roettger, the Australian National University
Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, University of the Witwatersrand

Increasing evidence suggests that adverse events in childhood can have lasting impacts along the life course. We examine the accumulation and interrelation of different dimensions of family adversity in childhood in rural South Africa. We used population-based, longitudinal data from a household census from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance site in rural South Africa, including children born from 1992 to 2009. We distinguished between three dimensions of family adversity: household vulnerability, loss within the family, and family dynamics. We used a group-based multi-trajectory model to define groups of children aged 0-12 years. In preliminary models we identified four distinct trajectories of family adversity in childhood. Initial models suggested that, compared to low adversity children, mortality risks were particularly elevated for children with multiple adversities within all dimensions and throughout childhood. Subsequent models will examine outcomes in late adolescence and early adulthood. Our preliminary results highlight how the accumulation and interrelation of these dimensions of family adversity are important in understanding child development and wellbeing.

Keywords: Children, Adolescents, and Youth, Families, Unions and Households, Longitudinal studies

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